Heat Pump vs Gas Cost by State
Put both heating systems on the same useful-heat basis, then test a state rate against the COP, gas price, and furnace efficiency you expect.
Compare the same delivered heat
State selection loads its electricity rate and a regional planning COP. Replace both with local figures.
Residential energy statement
Instant planning estimate · not a utility invoice
- Heat-pump energy
- 1085.4 kWh
- Heat-pump cost
- $265.28
- Gas required
- 111.1 therms
- Gas cost
- $166.67
- Break-even COP
- 4.30
How the heat pump vs gas state comparison works
A heat pump vs gas comparison must put both systems on the same output basis. This calculator starts with useful heat delivered to the home in BTU. The heat pump divides that load by 3,412.142 BTU per thermal kWh and then by coefficient of performance. The furnace divides the same load by its efficiency and by 100,000 BTU per therm. Energy prices are applied only after those conversions.
Choosing a state loads its 2024 annual EIA residential electricity rate and a broad regional COP default: 2.7 in the Northeast, 2.8 in the Midwest, 3.2 in the Southeast, 2.9 in the Mountain region, and 3.1 in the Pacific region. These are intentionally modest screening values, not equipment ratings. Climate zones cross state lines, and performance changes with outdoor temperature, indoor setpoint, defrost, backup resistance heat, equipment sizing, and the temperature required by ducts or hydronic emitters.
Gas price is editable because a national or statewide average may not resemble a local utility bill. Use the variable supply-plus-delivery cost per therm. Furnace efficiency is entered as AFUE percentage; a 90% assumption means ten therms of fuel deliver about nine therms of useful heat before any distribution loss not represented by the rating.
Worked example
For one million BTU of delivered heat, a heat pump at COP 3 needs about 97.7 kWh. At 18¢/kWh, that costs about $17.58. A 90% gas furnace needs 11.11 therms. At $1.50 per therm, gas costs about $16.67. Gas is roughly $0.91 lower on variable energy for this block of heat. The calculated break-even COP is about 3.16: above that seasonal performance, the heat pump becomes cheaper under these prices.
How to interpret a state result
A small difference should be treated as a tie because real weather and tariffs can overwhelm it. Run a cold-weather case at a lower COP and a shoulder-season case at a higher COP. If the heat pump uses resistance backup, model that portion near COP 1. For a final comparison, obtain a temperature-bin load model and the selected unit’s capacity and COP at each design condition.
The statement compares variable fuel cost only. It does not include equipment purchase, duct upgrades, panel work, maintenance, rebates, financing, carbon emissions, or comfort. Fixed gas customer charges deserve special treatment: if the gas account can close completely, the annual avoided charge belongs in heat-pump savings. If a water heater, range, or fireplace keeps the account open, that fee is not avoided. The separate heat-pump cost calculator can compare oil as well as gas when state electricity is not the only decision variable.
Questions about heat pumps and gas by state
Is a heat pump cheaper than gas in my state?
What COP should I use for a heat pump comparison?
Does furnace AFUE equal real seasonal efficiency?
Should I include the monthly gas customer charge?
Sources
- U.S. Department of Energy — Air-Source Heat Pumps (2025) — COP, cold-climate operation, and installation context.
- U.S. EIA — Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (2024 annual) — State residential electricity-rate defaults.
- U.S. EIA — Units and calculators explained (2025) — Therm and BTU fuel conversions.
- NIST Special Publication 811 (2008) — Energy-unit conversion basis, including kWh and joules.